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-   -   The mini ice age starts here (http://www.soychicano.com/showthread.php?t=52961)

Unido 01-11-2010 11:45 AM

The mini ice age starts here
 
The mini ice age starts here

The bitter winter afflicting much of the Northern Hemisphere is only the start of a global trend towards cooler weather that is likely to last for 20 or 30 years, say some of the world’s most eminent climate scientists.
Their predictions – based on an analysis of natural cycles in water temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans – challenge some of the global warming orthodoxy’s most deeply cherished beliefs, such as the claim that the North Pole will be free of ice in
summer by 2013.

According to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado, Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007 – and even the most committed global warming activists do not dispute this.

The scientists’ predictions also undermine the standard climate computer models, which assert that the warming of the Earth since 1900 has been driven solely by man-made greenhouse gas emissions and will continue as long as carbon dioxide levels rise.

They say that their research shows that much of the warming was caused by oceanic cycles when they were in a ‘warm mode’ as opposed to the present ‘cold mode’.
This challenge to the widespread view that the planet is on the brink of an irreversible catastrophe is all the greater because the scientists could never be described as global warming ‘deniers’ or sceptics.
However, both main British political parties continue to insist that the world is facing imminent disaster without drastic cuts in CO2.

This image of the UK taken from NASA's multi-national Terra satellite on Thursday shows the extent of the freezing weather
Last week, as Britain froze, Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband maintained in a parliamentary answer that the science of global warming was ‘settled’.
Among the most prominent of the scientists is Professor Mojib Latif, a leading member of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has been pushing the issue of man-made global warming on to the international political agenda since it was formed 22 years ago.
Prof Latif, who leads a research team at the renowned Leibniz Institute at Germany’s Kiel University, has developed new methods for measuring ocean temperatures 3,000ft beneath the surface, where the cooling and warming cycles start.

He and his colleagues predicted the new cooling trend in a paper published in 2008 and warned of it again at an IPCC conference in Geneva last September.

Last night he told The Mail on Sunday: ‘A significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles – perhaps as much as 50 per cent.

'They have now gone into reverse, so winters like this one will become much more likely. Summers will also probably be cooler, and all this may well last two decades or longer.
‘The extreme retreats that we have seen in glaciers and sea ice will come to a halt. For the time being, global warming has paused, and there may well be some cooling.’

As Europe, Asia and North America froze last week, conventional wisdom insisted that this was merely a ‘blip’ of no long-term significance.

Though record lows were experienced as far south as Cuba, where the daily maximum on beaches normally used for winter bathing was just 4.5C, the BBC assured viewers that the big chill was merely short-term ‘weather’ that had nothing to do with ‘climate’, which was still warming.

The work of Prof Latif and the other scientists refutes that view.
On the one hand, it is true that the current freeze is the product of the ‘Arctic oscillation’ – a weather pattern that sees the development of huge ‘blocking’ areas of high pressure in northern latitudes, driving polar winds far to the south.

Meteorologists say that this is at its strongest for at least 60 years.
As a result, the jetstream – the high-altitude wind that circles the globe from west to east and normally pushes a series of wet but mild Atlantic lows across Britain – is currently running not over the English Channel but the Strait of Gibraltar.

However, according to Prof Latif and his colleagues, this in turn relates to much longer-term shifts – what are known as the Pacific and Atlantic ‘multi-decadal oscillations’ (MDOs).

For Europe, the crucial factor here is the temperature of the water in the middle of the North Atlantic, now several degrees below its average when the world was still warming.

But the effects are not confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Prof Anastasios Tsonis, head of the University of Wisconsin Atmospheric Sciences Group, has recently shown that these MDOs move together in a synchronised way across the globe, abruptly flipping the world’s climate from a ‘warm mode’ to a ‘cold mode’ and back again in 20 to 30-year cycles.
'They amount to massive rearrangements in the dominant patterns of the weather,’ he said yesterday, ‘and their shifts explain all the major changes in world temperatures during the 20th and 21st Centuries.

'We have such a change now and can therefore expect 20 or 30 years of cooler temperatures.’

Prof Tsonis said that the period from 1915 to 1940 saw a strong warm mode, reflected in rising temperatures.

But from 1940 until the late Seventies, the last MDO cold-mode era, the world cooled, despite the fact that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere continued to rise.

Many of the consequences of the recent warm mode were also observed 90 years ago.

For example, in 1922, the Washington Post reported that Greenland’s glaciers were fast disappearing, while Arctic seals were ‘finding the water too hot’.
It interviewed a Captain Martin Ingebrigsten, who had been sailing the eastern Arctic for 54 years: ‘He says that he first noted warmer conditions in 1918, and since that time it has gotten steadily warmer.

'Where formerly great masses of ice were found, there are now moraines, accumulations of earth and stones. At many points where glaciers formerly extended into the sea they have entirely disappeared.’
As a result, the shoals of fish that used to live in these waters had vanished, while the sea ice beyond the north coast of Spitsbergen in the Arctic Ocean had melted.

Warm Gulf Stream water was still detectable within a few hundred miles of the Pole.
In contrast, Prof Tsonis said, last week 56 per cent of the surface of the United States was covered by snow.

‘That hasn’t happened for several decades,’ he pointed out. ‘It just isn’t true to say this is a blip. We can expect colder winters for quite a while.’

He recalled that towards the end of the last cold mode, the world’s media were preoccupied by fears of freezing.

For example, in 1974, a Time magazine cover story predicted ‘Another Ice Age’, saying: ‘Man may be somewhat responsible – as a result of farming and fuel burning [which is] blocking more and more sunlight from reaching and heating the Earth.’

Prof Tsonis said: ‘Perhaps we will see talk of an ice age again by the early 2030s, just as the MDOs shift once more and temperatures begin to rise.’

Like Prof Latif, Prof Tsonis is not a climate change ‘denier’. There is, he said, a measure of additional ‘background’ warming due to human activity and greenhouse gases that runs across the MDO cycles.

But he added: ‘I do not believe in catastrophe theories. Man-made warming is balanced by the natural cycles, and I do not trust the computer models which state that if CO2 reaches a particular level then temperatures and sea levels will rise by a given amount.

'These models cannot be trusted to predict the weather for a week, yet they are running them to give readings for 100 years.’

Prof Tsonis said that when he published his work in the highly respected journal Geophysical Research Letters, he was deluged with ‘hate emails’.

He added: ‘People were accusing me of wanting to destroy the climate, yet all I’m interested in is the truth.’

He said he also received hate mail from climate change sceptics, accusing him of not going far enough to attack the theory of man-made warming.

The work of Profs Latif, Tsonis and their teams raises a crucial question: If some of the late 20th Century warming was caused not by carbon dioxide but by MDOs, then how much?
Tsonis did not give a figure; Latif suggested it could be anything between ten and 50 per cent.

Other critics of the warming orthodoxy say the role played by MDOs is even greater.

William Gray, emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University, said that while he believed there had been some background rise caused by greenhouse gases, the computer models used by advocates of man-made warming had hugely exaggerated their effect.

According to Prof Gray, these distort the way the atmosphere works. ‘Most of the rise in temperature from the Seventies to the Nineties was natural,’ he said. ‘Very little was down to CO2 – in my view, as little as five to ten per cent.’

But last week, die-hard warming advocates were refusing to admit that MDOs were having any impact.

In March 2000, Dr David Viner, then a member of the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, the body now being investigated over the notorious ‘Warmergate’ leaked emails, said that within a few years snowfall would become ‘a very rare and exciting event’ in Britain, and that ‘children just aren’t going to know what snow is’.
Now the head of a British Council programme with an annual £10 million budget that raises awareness of global warming among young people abroad, Dr Viner last week said he still stood by that prediction: ‘We’ve had three weeks of relatively cold weather, and that doesn’t change anything.

'This winter is just a little cooler than average, and I still think that snow will become an increasingly rare event.’

The longer the cold spell lasts, the harder it may be to persuade the public of that assertion.

Frozen

IndigenismoYNacionalismo 01-11-2010 05:55 PM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
It's snowing in some part of Northern Mexico. It will be amusing to hear how these global warming advocates (globalist scum) try to defend their fading theory.

miguelito21 01-12-2010 08:51 AM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
lmao :lol:

The globalist scum only needs to quote the very same scientist.


Before you use some scientist's work to defend your ideas, at least make sure you get his point right. :lol:


Mojib Latif, Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector

"Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming."

(just so you know, "anthropognic warming" referes to man-made global warming. I know big words are a problem for you.)



Scientist [Mojib Latif] Explains Earth's Warming Plateau


Transcript of the interview:

GUY RAZ, host:

But a best-case scenario? Well, if you read the research done by Professor Mojib Latif, a climate-change researcher at Kiel University in Germany, you might conclude that the Earth is actually cooling, and in fact, many climate change skeptics have, and they've cited Latif's research as evidence, except that Latif says his study has been misinterpreted and that global warming is just temporarily on hold.

Dr. MOJIB LATIF (Climate and Ocean Scientist, University of Kiel): What we are experiencing is a kind of hold; temperatures are more or less steady and remain at relatively high levels. The last record was in 1998.

RAZ: So we're not getting hotter from 1998 right now.

Dr. LATIF: We are not getting hotter but not colder either, and so, you know, the situation is more or less steady, but this is nothing unusual.

RAZ: What is causing this? Why hasn't there been an increase in the Earth's temperature since 1998?

Dr. LATIF: Well, we believe that a change in ocean current, especially in the tropical Pacific and in the southern oceans on the Southern Hemisphere, cooled the sea surface temperature, and this then led to an offset, you know, to global warming, and so the net effect is basically that there was no additional change.

RAZ: So based on your research, if I have this right, climate change, particularly a warming of the Earth's climate, is still the trend. It's just been slowed down for the last few years because of ocean currents, changes in ocean currents.

Dr. LATIF: Exactly. So - and this is the reason, because we have the short-term climate fluctuation, therefore, it doesn't make sense to look at short periods to assess the human impact on climate. So you have to consider several decades. Only then you see basically the long-term warming trend, and therefore, we can't really draw any inferences from this hold in the last 10 years or so, you know, with regard to global warming.


RAZ: So when do you expect the Earth to start warming again at an accelerated rate, what year?

Dr. LATIF: Well, we did only forecasts for the time until 2015. However, if we look further, then we have some indications that there are after, say after 2015 or 2020, you know, global warming will accelerate again.


RAZ: And how much warmer do you estimate it will become over the next sort of two or three decades?

Dr. LATIF: I think maybe .2 or .3 degrees, but it may accelerate thereafter. So it basically depends on, you know, how we behave during the next decades, right? So if we emit - or if we continue to emit these greenhouse gases at the present rate, you know, then the warming trend will be faster.


RAZ: Now, your research, Dr. Latif, has been cited by climate change skeptics here in the U.S., by for example, George Will, a conservative columnist with the Washington Post, to show that the Earth actually goes through natural warming and cooling trends and that climate change is really being overhyped. Do you think your work is being misused?

Dr. LATIF: Yes. It is misused. I must say this, unfortunately, because these changes we are talking about, these short-term changes, you know, their amplitudes are much smaller than the long-term warming trends. So we are talking about a hold, okay, in the last 10 years. We are not talking about a net cooling to, say, (unintelligible) temperatures, (unintelligible), you know, which we observed 100 years ago or so. Okay, and also what we predicted for the future is basically that this hold may continue for another 10 years or so, okay, but we did not predict a cooling. We basically said that we would stay for some more years on this plateau.


RAZ: Just to clarify, you are not a climate change skeptic.

Dr. LATIF: If my name was not Mojib Latif, my name would be global warming. So I really believe in Global Warming. Okay. However, you know, we have to accept that there are these natural fluctuations, and therefore, the temperature may not show additional warming temporarily.

RAZ: That is Mojib Latif, also known as Global Warming. He's a professor for climate physics at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University. He spoke with me from Hamburg, Germany.

Mojib Latif, thank you so much.

Dr. LATIF: I thank you.

Copyright ©2009 National Public Radio®.

CaliPac 01-12-2010 10:48 AM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
:lol:

Unido 01-12-2010 11:56 AM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by IndigenismoYNacionalismo (Post 1387529)
It's snowing in some part of Northern Mexico. It will be amusing to hear how these global warming advocates (globalist scum) try to defend their fading theory.

lol I think you hurt someones feelings.

IndigenismoYNacionalismo 01-12-2010 08:57 PM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
1 Attachment(s)
Attachment 1080

Unido 01-13-2010 08:03 AM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
:lol:

miguelito21 01-13-2010 09:56 AM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Unido
lol I think you hurt someones feelings

Meh, I don't care much about comments from a poser. I was replying to you and your article, not to his comment. Plus, you and me got more history don't we? lol. Although I admit the 'globalist scum' was new to me. I don't think you and your fellow conservatives here ever came up with it. Points for originality I guess.


Just a comment though: you didn't say shit about the fact that the scientist quoted in your article actually adheres to and defends the anthropogenic global warming theory.

Not only does he contradicts some of the comments made by the author, he also contradicts your opinion about global warming. Since you posted the article, thinking it defends your stance, I'd say you punked yourself. And I thought that'd be worthy of comment. But that's just me though. :lol:

Unido 01-13-2010 10:51 AM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by miguelito21 (Post 1388109)
Meh, I don't care much about comments from a poser. I was replying to you and your article, not to his comment. Plus, you and me got more history don't we? lol. Although I admit the 'globalist scum' was new to me. I don't think you and your fellow conservatives here ever came up with it. Points for originality I guess.


Just a comment though: you didn't say shit about the fact that the scientist quoted in your article actually adheres to and defends the anthropogenic global warming theory.

Not only does he contradicts some of the comments made by the author, he also contradicts your opinion about global warming. Since you posted the article, thinking it defends your stance, I'd say you punked yourself. And I thought that'd be worthy of comment. But that's just me though. :lol:

:lol:

Don't get so mad bro... it's just the "internets"! Ease up a bit.

FYI you replied to that other posts since you included "globalist scum" in your post.

miguelito21 01-13-2010 01:53 PM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
Quote:

Just a comment though: you didn't say shit about the fact that the scientist quoted in your article actually adheres to and defends the anthropogenic global warming theory.

Still nothing huh? What a surprise.

SJ 01-13-2010 03:00 PM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
:lol:

Unido 01-13-2010 03:14 PM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by miguelito21 (Post 1388295)
Still nothing huh? What a surprise.

Quote:

The globalist scum only needs to quote the very same scientist.
Oh I do believe she is mad. =)

admit that dude hurt your feelings then I will reply.

:lol:

Soldier 01-13-2010 06:30 PM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
i dunno but it sure was hot this weekend

Niyorco 01-13-2010 07:56 PM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
ha ha Unido got owned in his own thread!

Soldier 01-13-2010 08:16 PM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
Unido/Pelotero gets owned in every thread he is just waaay to stupid to understand
just as he is too stupid and will replay to this post

IndigenismoYNacionalismo 01-13-2010 11:16 PM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
meh...

SJ 01-14-2010 12:50 AM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Unido (Post 1388317)
Oh I do believe she is mad. =)

admit that dude hurt your feelings then I will reply.

:lol:

you wont' reply because there is nothing to reply to.

wise move to play the "you are mad" card, much safer than trying to respond.

Soldier 01-14-2010 12:57 AM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
Unido the perfect representation of a conservative

Observer 01-14-2010 01:01 AM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
It's funny, some of you act like he cares if he's wrong...
He's a fucken troll; he knows he wrong. Him getting people
to respond on-topic to his dumb-ass posts is a "win" for him
Successful troll is successful :lol:

Soldier 01-14-2010 01:04 AM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
Unido a troll? ppfffffft shows you dont know nothing about the interwebs
his responses are well articulated and smart

Unido 01-14-2010 10:51 AM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
Quote:

Latif says his study has been misinterpreted and that global warming is just temporarily on hold.
:lol:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Soldier (Post 1388416)
i dunno but it sure was hot this weekend

Where? On the sun?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Niyorco (Post 1388418)
ha ha Unido got owned in his own thread!

I did? :confused:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Soldier (Post 1388421)
Unido/Pelotero gets owned in every thread he is just waaay to stupid to understand
just as he is too stupid and will replay to this post

roflmao... nigga please you are borderline retarded and you get your ass handed to you then you start replying with pictures of stupid shit.... lol

Quote:

Originally Posted by SJ (Post 1388527)
you wont' reply because there is nothing to reply to.

wise move to play the "you are mad" card, much safer than trying to respond.

no not at all I just want him to admit that he was pissed cuz they called him globalist scum.... es tocho morocho! then I will respond. :lol:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Soldier (Post 1388532)
Unido the perfect representation of a conservative

Thanks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Observer (Post 1388537)
It's funny, some of you act like he cares if he's wrong...
He's a fucken troll; he knows he wrong. Him getting people
to respond on-topic to his dumb-ass posts is a "win" for him
Successful troll is successful :lol:

mira mira the king of trolls is calling me a troll.... I guess it takes one to know one huh?

Soldier 01-14-2010 11:04 AM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
see just as I predicted :lol:

Niyorco 01-14-2010 11:23 AM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
:lol:

Unido 01-14-2010 05:53 PM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
boo that was lame! Although judging from the large crowds of retards with covered faces, it was probably a Soy meeting. Looked like a bunch of retarded wanna be anarchist kids thinking they are real shit....

roflmao.

Niyorco 01-15-2010 06:10 AM

Re: The mini ice age starts here
 
Republicans > neocons


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